UMNO has no winning option

As mentioned in a previous post, there would be definite blow-back from UMNO after Gerakan's Andy Yong dared to suggest UMNO be kicked out of BN.

BN is now basically UMNO, MCA, MIC and Gerakan. Will they stick together and try to forge a new strategy together or will they go their separate ways and try to either strike it out on their own or forge new alliances?

Frankly, whether BN survives as a coalition of four component parties (one big brother and three tiny sibling) or whether it breaks up doesn't really make a difference because BN is basically UMNO now (UMNO won 54 seats while the three components combined got a miserable grand total of three seats)

So the question isn't really what BN will do but what UMNO will do. Let's look at its options. 

Option 1: Become a multi-racial party
This seems to be the option favored by KJ and Nazri. Unlike many of their colleagues they recognize that the Malaysian electorate does not vote mainly along racial lines anymore and that multi-racialism is the way forward. The only problem with this approach is who wants to join a multi-racial UMNO? What appeal is there for a non-Malay (or even a Malay for that matter) to join this antiquated, out-of-power party?

Option 2: Stay Malay-based and go at it alone
Let's say they ditch the other three non-Malay component parties and leave BN. As a standalone Malay party their appeal would be very narrow. Firstly, no non-Malays would vote for them (whereas in the past, those few non-Malays who actually still supported MCA, MIC and Gerakan would do so). Secondly in order to win over the urban Malay crowd it would need to be very progressive. This would alienate its rural, more conservative base. And even so, it's unlikely that urban, progressive Malays would prefer UMNO over any of the Pakatan component parties (yes, including DAP). The reason is obvious. UMNO doesn't have any progressive credentials.

Option 3: Join forces with PAS
Let's say it realizes it doesn't have the credibility to rebrand itself as a progressive party. So, instead it goes far right and joins forces with PAS to form an ultra-Malay/Muslim party. That's problematic too. As with Option 2, no non-Malay would vote for such a coalition. Nor would any progressive, urban Malay. But there's also a problem with the conservative base too. Don't forget, for many years, UMNO and PAS were rivals. There are many PAS supporters who despise UMNO and vice versa. For sure there would be some hardcore conservatives who would vote for such a coalition but you can be equally sure there are a number of PAS supporters who would become disillusioned with such a pairing and the same with UMNO members.

Looking at UMNO's options, we can help but conclude its future is bleak. Whether it goes progressive and multi-racial or whether it turns into a far-right, ultra Malay party, it can't win.