We've seen Sabah and Sarawak -- BN's former safe deposits -- ditch BN/UMNO. We've also seen a couple of peninsula UMNO MPs jump ship (to become independents supportive of Pakatan).
Is this the start of a trend? Likely. Will it result in the crumbling of UMNO? Possibly. Is this a good thing? Yes and no.
Many people are happy to see UMNO defeated and quite a few want to see it completely crushed. But as Wong Chin Huat points out in this opinion piece, that may not necessarily be a good thing. He highlights three key reasons. Let's look at them, shall we?
1. PAS would become the main opposition
Wong predicts that if UMNO collapses, many of its voters will switch to PAS instead, allowing it to not only retain Kelantan and Terengganu but to also take over Perlis, Kedah and Pahang in GE15.
I don't agree with that assessment. After four or five years of Pakatan, the electorate will get a chance to compare what Pakatan has achieved and what PAS has achieved. That being the case, PAS will probably at most be able to hold on to Kelantan but it will probably lose Terengganu and it has no chance of winning Perlis, Kedah or Pahang.
2. UMNO MPs switching over to Pakatan
Will that happen? Right now the guidelines are that they have to become Pakatan-supporting independents. But that might change over time. Bersatu seems to be the one most open to accepting from UMNO members. PKR is not quite as keen but may be open to the idea if they see lots of them moving into Bersatu. If UMNO implodes, Pakatan might be flooded with UMNO members, via Bersatu and PKR, says Wong.
Again, I don't quite agree with that assessment. All the leaders of the component parties know just how hard it was for them to finally defeat BN/UMNO. These guys are not short-term-minded idiots. Having achieved the impossible, they will not risk all that they've worked so hard for over a bunch of former UMNO MPs who are not worth that much to them in the first place.
True, Bersatu could use more MPs to boost its numbers within the coalition. But their man is the PM and as a party they carry more weight than their numbers suggest. They've got nothing to worry about in this first term. What about the second term? Well, it's worth remembering that Bersatu contested in a lot of UMNO areas (and lost). In GE15, they will contest in the same areas and this time around, they are less likely to lose. Why? Because voters wouldn't want to vote for down-and-out party (which is what UMNO is already and will be even more so by GE15). They will vote Bersatu and the party will be more at par with DAP and PKR after GE15. That being the case, there is no reason to take in frogs from UMNO. What about PKR? Well, their man is going to be the PM, certainly for the second half of this first term. It doesn't have any need for UMNO MPs.
3. Implosion of Pakatan
This is related to Point 2 above. According to wong, the influx of UMNO MPs will affect the composition of the coalition and cause it to implode. This premise is based on the assumption that there would be an influx of UMNO MPs should that party collapse. I don't think it will happen. I think Pakatan will stick to its principle that these people have to be independents supportive of Pakatan. They will not be part of Pakatan.
Conclusion: UMNO's implosion is not such a bad thing after all.
Is this the start of a trend? Likely. Will it result in the crumbling of UMNO? Possibly. Is this a good thing? Yes and no.
Many people are happy to see UMNO defeated and quite a few want to see it completely crushed. But as Wong Chin Huat points out in this opinion piece, that may not necessarily be a good thing. He highlights three key reasons. Let's look at them, shall we?
1. PAS would become the main opposition
Wong predicts that if UMNO collapses, many of its voters will switch to PAS instead, allowing it to not only retain Kelantan and Terengganu but to also take over Perlis, Kedah and Pahang in GE15.
I don't agree with that assessment. After four or five years of Pakatan, the electorate will get a chance to compare what Pakatan has achieved and what PAS has achieved. That being the case, PAS will probably at most be able to hold on to Kelantan but it will probably lose Terengganu and it has no chance of winning Perlis, Kedah or Pahang.
2. UMNO MPs switching over to Pakatan
Will that happen? Right now the guidelines are that they have to become Pakatan-supporting independents. But that might change over time. Bersatu seems to be the one most open to accepting from UMNO members. PKR is not quite as keen but may be open to the idea if they see lots of them moving into Bersatu. If UMNO implodes, Pakatan might be flooded with UMNO members, via Bersatu and PKR, says Wong.
Again, I don't quite agree with that assessment. All the leaders of the component parties know just how hard it was for them to finally defeat BN/UMNO. These guys are not short-term-minded idiots. Having achieved the impossible, they will not risk all that they've worked so hard for over a bunch of former UMNO MPs who are not worth that much to them in the first place.
True, Bersatu could use more MPs to boost its numbers within the coalition. But their man is the PM and as a party they carry more weight than their numbers suggest. They've got nothing to worry about in this first term. What about the second term? Well, it's worth remembering that Bersatu contested in a lot of UMNO areas (and lost). In GE15, they will contest in the same areas and this time around, they are less likely to lose. Why? Because voters wouldn't want to vote for down-and-out party (which is what UMNO is already and will be even more so by GE15). They will vote Bersatu and the party will be more at par with DAP and PKR after GE15. That being the case, there is no reason to take in frogs from UMNO. What about PKR? Well, their man is going to be the PM, certainly for the second half of this first term. It doesn't have any need for UMNO MPs.
3. Implosion of Pakatan
This is related to Point 2 above. According to wong, the influx of UMNO MPs will affect the composition of the coalition and cause it to implode. This premise is based on the assumption that there would be an influx of UMNO MPs should that party collapse. I don't think it will happen. I think Pakatan will stick to its principle that these people have to be independents supportive of Pakatan. They will not be part of Pakatan.
Conclusion: UMNO's implosion is not such a bad thing after all.
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