UMNO leaders are fond of saying that the party will be all right because a huge percentage of the Malays still supported UMNO in GE14.
Annuar Musa has claimed that UMNO got 60% of the Malay vote in GE14. For the sake of discussion, let's assume he is right. The natural questions is will UMNO be able to even retain that 60% the next time around?
Close to impossible. Here are the key reasons why.
a) According to political scientist Wong Chin Huat, who is an astute observer of Malaysian politics, about 20% of Malays will vote for the government of the day (doesn't matter whether it's UMNO or Pakatan). If what Wong says is true, that whittle UMNO's support down to 40% of Malays.
b) Within that 40% there will be some diehards who will stick by UMNO no matter what. But also within that 40% will be some who -- after seeing the good that Pakatan has done -- will want to switch to voting for Pakatan. So what percentage of Malays are hardcore supporters, the ones who will stick with UMNO come hell or high water. What is that number? 30%? I think that's too generous. I'd put it at most at 20%.
Don't forget, everybody wants to be with the winner. And nobody wants anything to do with the loser. UMNO is welcome to be complacent and assume it still has 60% of Malay support and will be able to at least retain that if not improve upon it. Boy, is it in for a rude shock when GE15 comes along.
Annuar Musa has claimed that UMNO got 60% of the Malay vote in GE14. For the sake of discussion, let's assume he is right. The natural questions is will UMNO be able to even retain that 60% the next time around?
Close to impossible. Here are the key reasons why.
a) According to political scientist Wong Chin Huat, who is an astute observer of Malaysian politics, about 20% of Malays will vote for the government of the day (doesn't matter whether it's UMNO or Pakatan). If what Wong says is true, that whittle UMNO's support down to 40% of Malays.
b) Within that 40% there will be some diehards who will stick by UMNO no matter what. But also within that 40% will be some who -- after seeing the good that Pakatan has done -- will want to switch to voting for Pakatan. So what percentage of Malays are hardcore supporters, the ones who will stick with UMNO come hell or high water. What is that number? 30%? I think that's too generous. I'd put it at most at 20%.
Don't forget, everybody wants to be with the winner. And nobody wants anything to do with the loser. UMNO is welcome to be complacent and assume it still has 60% of Malay support and will be able to at least retain that if not improve upon it. Boy, is it in for a rude shock when GE15 comes along.
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