Contest like you have only 92

So, Muhyiddin has been sworn in as PM. The majority he claims to have will surely be challenged once Parliament convenes. But when will that be? It's supposed to be March 9 but Muhyiddin, as PM, can ask the King to delay it until early June, apparently.

Having Parliament convene later will buy Muhyiddin some time to consolidate power and increase his numbers. But such a delay could also be a double-edged sword. He could also see his numbers decline if Anwar and Dr M are able to convince MPs to cross over to the Pakatan Harapan side.

But even if Anwar and Dr M are not so good at wooing frogs, there is also the likelihood (or perhaps certainty) of infighting among the Perikatan Nastional component parties.

Bersatu, which has 36 MPs, will consider itself to be the linchpin of the coalition because the PM is from there. BN and PAS, meanwhile, will consider themselves to be the key components because collectively they have 60 MPs, which dwarfs Bersatu's numbers. Meanwhile, GPS will make major demands because it considers itself to be the kingmaker.

Everybody will make demands and nobody will give an inch. This is the powder keg that is Perikatan Nasional.

UMNO and PAS may have given way to Muhyiddin just to get back into government again but there's no way they will allow Bersatu, with its meager 36 MPs, to assume the role of top dog in the coalition. They will want to have the final say on everything. But Bersatu, which is used to calling the shots, will never allow this.

Their leaders will say, "If we didn't initiate the Sheraton Move, there would be no Perikatan," to which UMNO and PAS will counter-claim: "If we didn't support you, there wouldn't be Perikatan too". Finally, GPS will chip in, "Hey, you Peninsula guys, don't forget, without our crucial support, you would be in the Opposition".

If you like fireworks, just sit back and you will not be disappointed. Give them a month before the infighting breaks out wide into the open.

Even in PH, where three parties (PKR, DAP and Amanah) had decided to kowtow to Bersatu, there was still major friction almost right from the start. What more a coalition of rivals like Perikatan, where nobody will defer to the others.

So, Muhyiddin has a tough choice ahead. Have Parliament convene as per schedule and he could end up being the Malaysian PM with the shortest term ever. Or delay Parliament's sitting and have internecine warfare see his numbers decline.

As for PH, since they claim to have the majority (at first is was 114, then it rose to 115 at one point and then back down to 114. Last I read, it's 112). That figure is going to swing wildly over the next few days and weeks as horsetrading on an unprecedented scale erupts on both sides.

If by the time Parliament convenes, PH actually has got at least 112 firmly on its side, of course they should go for a vote of no confidence. But if they don't quite have the numbers, they need to switch strategies and focus on winning GE15 instead.

That means not wasting any more time or energy on trying to back-door the backdoor government of Muhyiddin.

In terms of mindset, PH needs to think of itself as a coalition with 92 MPs. Not 102 (inclusive of Warisan & UPKO), not 108 (inclusive of Dr M's faction of Bersatu) and certainly not 114 or 115 (inclusive of crossovers). They need to accept the fact that what they've got -- and all they've got -- is 92.

With that in mind, they know they need to get another 20 more seats (at least) to gain control of the government. They cannot afford to rely on Bersatu at all. Nor can they rely on Warisan and UPKO. They need to get 112 on their own. Why? Because they know they can trust each other.

They have to contest in almost all of the 222 constituencies. That includes seats that Bersatu or Warisan would be contesting in. This of course would cause friction with Bersatu and Warisan/UPKO but so what?

Collaborating with them only makes sense if the aim is to give Muhyiddin a taste of his own backdoor medicine. If that fails once Parliament convenes, all bets are off.

A collaboration with these parties is actually hazardous to PH because they would have to accommodate them and make all sorts of concessions. Instead, PH should chart its own course and decide what they have to do to win over the rakyat in GE14. Like I said in a recent post, PH needs to win control the old fashioned way.