Full throttled horse trading ahead

And so it seems the Sheraton Move 2.0 triumphed over Pakatan Harapan 2.0. At least for now. But it will surely be tested once Parliament convenes and a vote of no confidence is introduced. Before we get to that though, let's look at how we got here.

Somehow or another Muhyiddin managed to convince the King that he had the numbers. That means at least 112 on his side although PAS has claimed the number is 114.

We don't know how he got to that number but we can take an educated guess. We were told the King asked the party heads to state how many MPs they each had on their side.

Muhyiddin probably claimed the 144 to comprise of:
36 from Bersatu (25 Bersatu + 11 from Azmin's faction)
42 from BN
18 from PAS
18 from GPS

Note that the Bersatu figure of 36 does not include Dr M even though he's technically still a member of Bersatu because he obviously does not support Muhyiddin for PM. But doesn't the 114 figure grossly exaggerate the numbers that he has going for him?

From Bersatu itself, we know that Dr M, Mukhriz and Syed Saddiq are not for Muhyiddin. Mukhriz has also claimed that Maszlee Malik, Eddin Syazlee Shith and Amiruddin Hamzah are also against Muhyiddin. That's six Bersatu MPs out of the Muhyiddin group already. PKR has said Richard Riot and Baru Bian have switched camps too.

If all this is true, Muhyiddin would only have 114 - 8 = 106.

But even if PH can prove this to be case, will they be able to convince the King to change his mind? Or will the King instead say put it to the test in Parliament?

The Parliament is set to convene March 9. If it does convene on that day, there will almost certainly be a vote of no confidence to test Muhyiddin's claim of having the majority.

But apparently, Muhyiddin could ask the King to postpone the opening of Parliament until the first week of June, which would buy him time to consolidate his numbers.

Meanwhile, Dr M has published a list of 114 names of people who back him as the PM of the country. Will the King accept this as proof? Or will he proceed with swearing in Muhyiddin as the PM and asking the warring factions to sort this matter out in Parliament through a vote of no confidence.

Whether the King appoints Muhyiddin or actually recognizes Dr M's claim, there's bound to be a vote of no confidence when Parliament reopens (either on March 9 or early June).

So, folks, you can expect a lot of horse-trading to go on until that vote of no confidence happens. On the PH side you can expect the original PH parties (PKR, DAP, Amanah) to stay firm. Let's assume Dr M's faction and Warisan/UPKO also remain solid. The only questionable ones are the newcomers who have just crossed over. Will they stay firm with PH? Nobody knows.

Whatever the outcome, the one good thing about this whole Sheraton Move saga is that it's flushed the Azmin faction and Bersatu out of PH. In the short run, this backdoor government move may end up costing PH control of the government but in the long run, it will help PH become a stronger coalition. 

In any event, GE15 is about two years away. PH is better positioned to do well in that one now that it's gotten rid of its most problematic components.