Dr M's first miscalculation was in assuming that Pakatan Harapan was so desperate to have him as PM that they would support him even as he rebuffs the PH government as a concept.
When he abruptly resigned as PM and as chairman of Bersatu, he enjoyed the support of practically every party and faction in Parliament. That probably gave him a false sense of security, so much so that when PH invited him to attend a meeting to discuss how to revive the PH government, he declined.
Instead, Dr M told them he wanted a Unity Government where he could pick and choose whomever he wanted. It would be an unprecedented system (in the Malaysian context) whereby he would be accountable to no one but everyone in the government would be beholden to him.
The Opposition balked at this and not surprisingly, so did PH. So instead, they nominated Anwar to be their PM should they be able to garner at least 112 MPs. It was only when Muhyiddin decided he, himself, would be the PM candidate that PH and Dr M hastily collaborated once again to try to thwart him. But by then it was too late.
Overplaying his hand and assuming PH would support him no matter what was miscalculation No 1. Miscalculation No 2 happened almost immediately after that. Amazingly, it was the exact same mistake!
The King had decided to recognize Muhyiddin as the one who is most likely to command the confidence of the majority of the MPs, so he was named the PM.The King then refused to see Dr M who claimed to have a list of 114 MPs who supported him as PM.
In response, Dr M embarked on a roadshow to explain the situation to the Bersatu grassroots. Remarkably, he decided to badmouth PH in general and Anwar in particular, blaming them for abandoning him.
What he conveniently neglects to mention was that PH actually supported him to be the PM. It was only when he refused to be the head of PH (and wanted his own Unity Government instead) that they decided not to support him anymore. They didn't abandon him. He was the one who abandoned PH.
Now, why on earth would he go around badmouthing Anwar when he clearly needs PH? His faction of Bersatu consist of maybe five MPs. With Warisan supporting him, that's another nine. So he has perhaps 14 MPs on his side. PH has 92.
In terms of numbers alone, he clearly needs PH more than PH needs him. But the problem is that all the while, over the past 22 months, the other PH parties kowtowed to him and he's gotten used to that.
This is probably why he thinks he can get away with badmouthing Anwar and still enjoy their support. He thinks PH wants to overthrow Muhyiddin so badly, they will do so at all cost, including having him as their PM candidate again, even as he badmouths their leader.
Well, it looks like PH has finally realized the folly of their appeasement ways. Wan Azizah has said that PH will likely go with Anwar as their PM candidate for any future PH 2.0 government.
This is the right move. If Dr M wants to lead PH again but only on his terms (no naming of Anwar as DPM, no transition date, etc), what's the point? The 14 seats that he can bring to the table is not worth having to put up with such nonsense.
Even if it means PH will be staying in the Opposition for some time, so be it. PH should use the opportunity to rebrand and rebuild itself ahead of GE15 rather than try to engineer some crossovers.
If they don't have the numbers, they should work towards winning the next election instead. They shouldn't waste time looking for defectors.
If you take in frogs, you run the risk of them jumping ship once someone dangles a better offer. You can't build a sustainable coalition on frogs.
Instead, PH should aim to win the right to form the government the old fashioned way: Winning an election convincingly.
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