Snap polls are the best for everyone

When May 18 comes around, there are four possible scenarios:
i) Vote of no confidence fails and Perikatan Nasional continues to be the government of the day
ii) Vote of no confidence succeeds with Pakatan Harapan having the majority. Muhyiddin asks for Parliament to be dissolved and King agrees. Snap polls ensue.
iii) Vote of no confidence succeeds with PH having the majority but King declines to dissolve the Parliament. PH is recognized as the government.
iv) Vote of no confidence succeeds but PH doesn't have the majority either (neither coalition does). Parliament is dissolved and snap polls ensue.

Are there any other potential scenarios than the ones listed above? I can't think of it. So, let's just say those are the only four possible outcomes.

Scenario 1: PN succeeds
At the time of writing, it looks like this is the most likely scenario with Muhyiddin having around 113 seats. It's very tight but it looks like he has the majority (for now).

Scenario 2: PH succeeds but snap polls ensue
In the event that PH succeeds with its vote of no confidence and actually has a majority, snap polls are likely to happen because Muhyiddin will surely ask for that in such a scenario. The King has the discretion to say no but usually the King acts on the advice of the PM.

Scenario 3: PH succeeds and is recognized as the government
Even if PH has the numbers, snap polls are more likely than PH being recognized as the government. If they have the majority, it would be a very slim one, maybe by a margin of one or two. That makes for a very unstable government as there will be a lot of party hopping happening. We can't have a situation where there are regular votes of no confidence happening and governments changing hands all the time. This is the least likely scenario.

Scenario 4: Vote of no confidence succeeds but nobody has the majority
At the time of writing, this is more likely to happen than scenario 2 or 3 as PH is unlikely to get a majority. But there could be enough discontented MPs in Perikatan (those who didn't get to become ministers or deputy ministers) that they could abandon PN without supporting PH. In this scenario, it's snap polls too.

So, out of the four scenarios, the most likely (at the time of writing) is 1 (PN stays in power). Second likely scenario is 4: (Nobody has the majority and snap polls are called). Third would be 2 (PH gets majority but snap polls are called). Least likely is 4 (PH gets majority and forms the government).

If you look at the Top 3 likely scenarios, they all involve elections. Scenario 1 may mean polls two to three years later. Scenario 4 and 2 means snap polls.

Whatever the case, I maintain that PH has the edge in any election. In the case of snap polls, PH has two things going for it. Firstly, seat allocations among its component parties have largely been sorted out. They just need to figure out who will contest where in Bersatu and Warisan seats. Yes, they must contest in all seats so they can get a majority without the need for outside help. It will be impossible for PN to sort out seat allocations so fast. The second thing PH has got going for them is that while PH can go for the Malaysian vote (Malay and non-Malays), PN can realistically only go after the Malay vote. And the Malay vote will still be split.

What about a general election two or three years down the road. It will actually be even worse for PN. Firstly, no amount of time will allow them to properly sort out seat allocations because Bersatu, UMNO and PAS are each going after the same vote. And none of the parties will give way to the other because they each obviously want to increase their numbers in Parliament. Secondly, even in cases where there is an agreement there is bound to be sabotage by disgruntled politicians who felt that constituency should have been given to him. Thirdly, after two years of PN rule, the rakyat will really want to throw them out.

So, actually the best scenario for PN is snap polls because if they somehow manage to win that, they will have another five years. Otherwise they are at most a two or three year government. Interestingly, the best scenario for PH is also snap polls because they are likely to win it.

So, snap polls are actually the best.