The only solution

 

Dr M's mistake is complacency. At one point, right after the Sheraton Move had happened, he had all of Harapan and all of Bersatu and all of Muafakat supporting him to become PM.

Harapan wanted him to remain as their leader and help them win back the majority in Parliament. Bersatu, aiming to team up with Muafakat (BN + PAS) wanted him to join their side and take control of Parliament.

So what did he do? Feeling indispensable, he spurned both sides and declared he wanted to create a so-called "Unity Government" where everyone was accountable to him and he was accountable to no one.

Guess what. Everyone told him to take a hike. Harapan rejected this and so did Bersatu/Muafakat, who went on to form Perikatan.

***

Anwar's mistake is he likes to play political poker. At one point, he probably did have enough MPs backing him to take majority control of Parliament. At least on paper. Meaning if he counted all of Harapan, and he counted all the UMNO guys who were willing to support him, and he counted some GPS guys who might have been willing to cross over, and if he counted Warisan as eventually joining forces with him, yes he probably did have more than 112. Maybe he had something in the 120 range.

But he wanted more in order to show that he had a strong majority. So what did he do? He announced in advanced what he was going to do. He did that to induce fear and therefore encourage even more crossovers. Those sitting on the fence would think: "Oh, damn... Anwar's going to be PM... I'd better hop over and join his side".

There are two problems with this strategy. Firstly, each party that was supposed to be supporting him was kept in the dark as to who else they were supposed to be partnering with. Then, you have DAP saying no way would they work with UMNO. You also had UMNO saying no way would they work with DAP. So, on paper yes, he had the numbers but in practical terms, he didn't because these two major parties cannot work together.

The other problem is that by openly declaring his gambit for the world to see, it gives him enemies the chance and the time to counter his moves. And counter it, they did.

***

DAP and Amanah's mistake was they decided the best way to deal with a manifesto-reneging Dr M was to appease him. To walk on eggshells and to bend over backwards to make sure he wasn't unhappy, lest he pull the trigger and blow up Harapan.

So, instead of putting their foot down and reminding Dr M that he needs them as much as they need him, they acted as if everything hinged on keeping Dr M happy. But if you give someone like Dr M an inch, he will want a mile. And however compliant they were, it was never enough.

The problem with appeasement of bad behaviour is that it doesn't encourage good behaviour, it encourages even more bad behaviour. The more they kowtowed to Dr M, the more recalcitrant he became.

They knew he was meeting PAS and UMNO behind their back. They knew he was sowing divisions within PKR by grooming Azmin. They knew he was continually pushing back the date to hand over the reigns to Anwar. But what did they do? Nothing.

***

Muhyiddin's mistake was that he somehow believed that partnering up with Bersatu's rivals, PAS and UMNO, to form a new government with a razor-thin majority in Parliament, is a sustainable thing.

Perhaps he saw how Dr M could cow the other Harapan partners despite the fact that Bersatu had very small numbers, and was inspired to try to do the same. But he, of all people, should know UMNO's character. UMNO will never stand for a smaller party taking charge. And so you have all these rumblings within UMNO, constantly threatening to leave him for Anwar.

How unsustainable is the Sheraton Move? Well, Muhyiddin actually tried to resort to calling for an Emergency (which was wisely rejected by the King). That's how unsustainable it is.

***

UMNO's mistake is in thinking if there are snap polls they will win the majority. The reality is that not only is PAS gunning for the same seats as UMNO, so is Bersatu. And then they've also got Harapan to contend with in Malay seats.

Let's be clear. There is no way UMNO, PAS and Bersatu can come to terms on seat allocation. Each party will want the lion's share of seats and the others won't give way. So, there will be a deadlock, resulting in either a three or four-way contest. Or if the top guns miraculously manage to come up with a compromise candidate from one party, the other party leaders will sabotage the campaign.

Either way, it will not be easy for UMNO to win enough seats to control the government. They are dreaming if they think GE15 will be a walk in the park for them. If anything, they will lose even more seats due to the conflicts with Bersatu and PAS for seat allocations and the ensuing problems that result from that.

***

So, what's the best solution? Just wait for GE15 to happen. If Anwar wants to become PM, he has to make sure that PKR + DAP + Amanah win enough seats to form a government without having to make deals with or relying on any other party (which could hold it to ransom).

Dr M has already stated clearly that his Pejuang party aims to become the Kingmaker. Any other party outside of the Harapan tent will also want to be a Kingmaker. So, he needs to come up with a strategy for PKR, DAP and Amanah to close ranks and prepare for a win in GE15 without the help of others.

Forget about a counter-coup

 

UMNO is itching for a general election. Be careful what you wish for!

 

Back when the Sheraton Move first happened and everything started to fall apart for Pakatan Harapan, I said the best option for Harapan moving forward is to prepare for GE15 and aim to win a simple majority without Dr M's faction and without Warisan's support.

The rationale was simple. Dr M wants to be a king-maker. Even with as few as 5 MPs back him, he wants to be the one to dictate things in a Harapan coalition. That won't do.

As for Warisan, it has never supported Harapan per se. It supported Harapan while Dr M was in Harapan. And it's been reported that it was Warisan that rejected the idea of Anwar as PM and Mukhriz as DPM. Warisan is not a steady and reliable ally.

Harapan cannot afford to rely on the support of "kingmakers" who want to be able to have the final say on things. Instead it should prepare to win GE15 without them.

But what about a counter-coup instead? First of all, Anwar doesn't have the numbers. Maybe he did at one time but right now, it doesn't seem like he does anymore.

Besides, in order to have the numbers it seems Anwar would need UMNO and DAP to be on the same team and that's impossible. UMNO has said it won't work with DAP, and DAP has said it won't work with UMNO.

So, just forget about the counter-coup and focuse on GE15!

Muhyiddin at his weakest

 

There are many imponderables when you think about the political situation in this country. One big imponderable is what on earth made Muhyiddin think it was a good idea to pull Bersatu out of Pakatan Harapan and team up with its rival UMNO instead? How on earth did he think this could possibly be a stable situation? What could have possibly convinced him that the situation could be sustainable?

This marriage of convenience had the word "Implosion" all over it. But he went ahead anyway. And this is the mess he got himself into. His situation is so precarious that he actually resorted to trying to get the King to declare a state of Emergency.

When news first got out about the Cabinet approving this desperado move, everyone was concerned because the common understanding is that the King has to act on the advice of the PM. Several articles published by online media quoted constitutional lawyers affirming that the King should act on the advice of the PM. Most did not regard his discretion to include rejecting that advice.

But reject his advice, the King did.

We don't know what the conference of rulers talked about but they probably realized that not only would an Emergency declaration be highly unpopular because of how unnecessary it would be, it would also destroy our economy. And not to mention it was a blatant political power play that had little to do with curtailing the virus, and more to do with curtailing Anwar.

With the advice of the other rulers, the King said no.

Can Muhyiddin challenge that decision in court? He could. Would he win? Very possible, if you believe what the constitutional lawyers say. But he's not going to do it. He's already so weakened by this situation, the last thing he needs now is a Battle Royale with the royalty.

Muhyiddin is in bad shape. His only consolation is that the Opposition hasn't exactly got its act together either. Anwar seems to be acting like a lone wolf, trying to cobble together a majority in Parliament. From what's been published, it seems like he's been reaching out to UMNO MPs to get the numbers. But if he gets a bunch of UMNO guys to join him, DAP will leave. He can't assume DAP will stick with him no matter what.

So, while Muhyiddin might have lost his majority, it's not obvious that Anwar has the majority either. The solution might have to be snap polls. Nobody really wants that but sometimes a bad option is the only option.

Whatever the case, one thing is clear: Muhyiddin's back door gambit has come back to haunt him.

Imponderables

The political situation right now is full of imponderables:

1. Why did Anwar reveal that he had the numbers even before he saw the King?
The only logical conclusion is that he wanted to induce fear (and crossovers) from UMNO MPs who were afraid his claims are true.

2. But isn't he afraid that once he alerts his enemies, they will try to thwart the crossovers?
One logical conclusion is that he believes his support is so solid that it can't be thwarted. But how can he be so sure? Another possibility is that he is playing high stakes poker. He thinks the risk is worth the potential pay-off (that the fear will induce enough new crossovers that it would more than offset any who changed their mind about crossing over).

3. Why did Zahid say that many UMNO MPs support Anwar?
The knee-jerk conclusion is that he had cut a deal with Anwar. The more likely scenario is that this was done to spook Muhyiddin into making concessions.

4. If indeed Zahid and Najib are supportive of Anwar, why?
Assuming that Anwar is savvy enough to know he can't possibly make a deal with these two and hope to survive politically, the only logical conclusion is that they believe that they are somehow better off with Anwar as PM than with Muhyiddin (even if there's no deal in place). In other words, they might view him as the lesser evil for some reason. But it really can't be that it's because he's made a deal with them. That would be political suicide for Anwar.

5. If UMNO MPs are supporting Anwar because of their disappointment with Muhyiddin, what do they possibly hope to get from Anwar that they couldn't get from Muhyiddin?
Again, surely Anwar is savvy enough to know he can't reward UMNO MPs with even better ministerial positions and even cushier GLC jobs than Muhyiddin. So what has he got to offer? Perhaps those UMNO MPs are banking on the fact that once Anwar finally gets to become PM, he will want to hold so dearly to that long-sought-after position that he will do anything to stay in power, including cutting them some sweetheart deals. They might be wrong but that's the only logical explanation for why they would want to support him. It can't be because they support his pro-reform and multiracial agenda.

6. If Anwar is contemplating deals with UMNO MPs, how does he hope to get DAP's support?
This leads us to believe he is somehow able to offer UMNO MPs something they want that DAP is able to swallow. But it's hard to imagine what that could be if not ministerial and GLC positions. Maybe he can get the UMNO MPs to come into this without any explicit deals and rely on their gullibility in thinking they can change him.

7. If Anwar indeed had the numbers, why didn't he give the names to the King so that the King could make a decision on what to do next?
Perhaps he didn't have any exact numbers but only ball park figures based on what each party leader (including from UMNO) told him they could muster. And perhaps he's hoping that if the King takes it upon himself to individually ask each MP what their stance was with regard to Anwar as PM, they would affirm their support for him (for whatever reasons that are important to them).

8. How can Anwar hope to get enough MPs from UMNO when there are so many denials?
Of course there will be many denials at this stage. Who in their right minds will reveal themselves as people who are just about to crossover? Of course they will deny vehemently and claim that they are totally against Anwar and DAP, and so on. Well, they are totally against him until they aren't. Once it's a fait accompli, and he's PM, you can be sure all kinds of people will come forward and say they were secretly supportive of him all the while.

I guess in a matter of weeks, we will find out the answers to many of these imponderables. Anwar will eventually prove to be a fool or a king, so to speak (or perhaps we should change the saying to "a fool or a PM").

What to make of Anwar's bid to become PM

 

There are a few things we know and a few things we don't know relating to Anwar's bid to become PM.

Let's start with what we know:
a) We know that he's pretty much got Harapan behind him.
b) We know that whatever numbers he's got, it doesn't include Dr M's 5 MPs from Pejuang.
c) We know (thanks to Zahid) there are some UMNO MPs supporting Anwar.

What can we don't know:
a) Who are the UMNO MPs that support him?
b) Does he have anyone from GPS and PAS (maybe a few from each
c) Is Warisan behind him? (That's not a given).

The big question on everybody's mind is whether Anwar really has the numbers or is he just bluffing? If he's bluffing, this is really high stakes poker he's playing. If it's proven in the end that he does not have the numbers, his reputation will take a fall that he will never recover from.

That alone makes me think he's not bluffing. He probably does have the numbers, with support from some individual members of UMNO, PAS, GPS and perhaps Warisan. If you add it all up, it could be a comfortable majority, even without Pejuang's 5 MPs.

The problem is all those guys who are supporting him will surely want plum positions or promises of this or that. Anwar has said that no deals have been made. And one would think that he is savvy enough to know that if he make some blatantly corrupt deals, he's finished. So, perhaps they are supporting him simply because they see him as the so-called "lesser evil" compared to Muhyiddin.

But short of any kind of special deals or promises made, how can that be? What could Anwar offer them that Muhyiddin can't or won't, especially if no deal has been made? That's an imponderable.

The other natural question is how can such a government, cobbled up by taking in various individuals from here and there, be a stable one? If these Johnny-Come-Lately supporters can abandon Muhyiddin in search of "greener pastures" what is to say they won't do the same to Anwar when they see a better opportunity?

Of course the King has a crucial role to play here. If he interviews each and everyone of the crossover MPs, he could impress upon them that he really wants to know how serious they are about supporting Anwar as the new PM, and he could tell them he won't take it kindly if they keep switching sides. The King has a lot of moral authority and it would be a brave MP who dares to make a fool out of the King.

Whatever the case, it looks like Muhyiddin's days as PM are numbered. As it is he only has a majority of two MPs in Parliament. That's pretty damn slim. His government could easily crumble any time. And from the sounds of it, there are at least two UMNO MPs not happy with him. So, it's just a matter of time.

The real question is whether Anwar, assuming he can cobble together a majority, is able form a stable and steady government. That is the big unknown.

The government they deserve

 

It is said that people get the government they deserve. Well, the people of Sabah have spoken and they got the government they deserve. Good luck to them!

The great comeuppance is coming

 

Against all odds, Pakatan Harapan wins GE14, allowing Dr M to become Prime Minister once again. Based on the agreement all component parties had made, Dr M would be PM for a good two years, after which he would pass the baton to Anwar. Dr M had a real chance to right all the wrongs of the past and chart a bright new future for Malaysia.

Instead, what did he do? From the get-go, he decided to thwart Anwar's chances of becoming PM. Now, after all that Machiavellian scheming, it looks like the one thing he was dead set on preventing is going to happen.

As for Muhyiddin and Azmin, what they did was nothing short of a betrayal of the rakyat's choice. Any way you slice it, it was a betrayal. The rakyat voted for Harapan, not for Perikatan (which didn't even exist then). They subverted the will of the people and after a matter of months, the tables look like they are turning.

As for all the frogs at every level, who quickly abandoned Harapan to join Perikatan, it looks like they all backed the wrong horse. Will they be so brazen as to ask for permission to jump back to Anwar's side? Possible. Such frogs know no shame. But good luck to them if they think they will be accepted.

Yes, karma works. The great comeuppance is coming.

Pejuang as kingmaker?

 

Dr M has predicted that his new party, Pejuang, will win around 30 seats in the next elections and that it will then be in a position to become kingmaker.

Now, I've said many times in the past that in GE15, Harapan parties must contest in seats previously contested by Bersatu. That should include seats being contested by former Bersatu (turned Pejuang) members.

Why?

Because they are not allied to Harapan. If a party is not allied to you, why should you give way to it? Would Bersatu, UMNO or PAS give way to Pejuang? No way. So why should any Harapan parties?

In fact, I've long argued that Harapan should consider contesting against Warisan too. Why? For the same reason. Warisan is not a (true) ally of Harapan. Its commitment has all along been to Mahathir, not to Harapan.

Don't forget that Shafie rejected the proposal that Anwar become the PM designate for Harapan. There's no indication that his position on that matter has changed. But Harapan's PM designate is Anwar. As such, Warisan cannot be considered an ally. It's not the enemy but it's not an ally that can be depended on.

So, unless something formal can be drawn up whereby Warisan aligns itself formally to Harapan and agrees to accept Harapan's candidate for PM, there's no reason why Harapan should give way to Warisan either.

Harapan has to win enough seats in GE15, on its own steam, to form the government. That means at least 112 seats, on its own. It cannot rely on Warisan's numbers to add to that tally and it most certainly cannot rely on Pejuang, which has already declared publicly that it will want to play the role of kingmaker!

People don't like a backdoor government

 

A recent article in The Star asked why the Chinese political ground seems to be so cold towards Muhyiddin. I believe it's not just the Chinese but anyone who had voted for Harapan in the last elections would be cold towards him and the Perikatan government.

Why?

For the simple reason that a backdoor government subverts the will of the electorate. No one is arguing that the way Perikatan came to power is illegal. But just because something is legal doesn't mean it's ethical.

The people voted for Harapan, which consisted of PKR, DAP, Amanah and Bersatu. Perikatan is basically UMNO, PAS and Bersatu (yes, MIC and MCA are in there but they are pretty inconsequential in the grand scheme of things). Perikatan is clearly not what the people voted for.

UMNO is itching for a snap election. PAS seems keen too. Bersatu less so, for obvious reasons. It knows it's likely to be wiped out if snap polls were to be held soon. First of all, UMNO has already said it's not going to give way to Bersatu, so there are extremely few seats it can contest in. And of those, only a small handful might win. Muhyiddin might win but who else? Azmin? Don't be too sure of that. Or of the others.

So, Bersatu will go from being a small party to being a mosquito party if snap polls were held. But would UMNO do any better than it did in GE14? There's no compelling reason why the results would be better for it this time around.

In order for it to do better, it has to win seats that it had lost to Harapan the last time around. Although people were rightly disappointed that Harapan did not bring about the reforms it had promised, would those very same people turn to UMNO for such reforms?

As for PAS, there is also no compelling argument for why it should do any better. In fact, it is likely to do worse. You must remember, in GE14, when people voted for PAS, they were voting for the Opposition (opposition to BN, in general, and UMNO, in particular). Those people obviously did not like the BN government. Now that PAS is in cahoots with UMNO, will those very same people still vote for PAS? Some might. But some will not. Those who voted for PAS because they wanted to kick BN and UMNO out of power are not going to vote for PAS anymore.

It is said that people have short memories and this may be true but the Sheraton Move is not something the electorate will forget very easily. Subverting the will of the voting public is not something people will easily forget. And they will remember that going into the polls.

Not one seat for Bersatu

 

 

 

The Umno supreme council has decided that BN will contest in seats that it had lost due to defections since the last general election.

“This is the supreme council’s - not the president’s – decision to retake (the seats). Thus, we will not give even one seat to Bersatu. That much is certain.

“If Bersatu still wants (to contest in the next general election), then they can contest in other seats.

“It is up to them to contest in Bersatu Blackout’s seats or wherever else, they can go contest in that place,” said supreme council member Zahidi Zainul Abidin.

Enough said.

Azmin's true face

Umno supreme council member Puad Zarkashi doesn't mince his words:

"After joining Bersatu, it will not be easy for Azmin and his group to win solid support of the Chinese as they had done in the 13th and 14th general elections.

"By joining Bersatu, Azmin will join Muafakat Nasional (too). There is a proverb that says 'masuk kandang kambing mengembik, masuk kandang kerbau menguak' (when you enter a goat's pen, bleat, when you enter a cow's pen, moo)," he said.

Puad was apparently referring to the Malay-centric thrust of Muafakat Nasional's political position, which would ostensibly alienate non-Malay voters in Azmin's Gombak constituency.

"The people will see the true face of Azmin. Only the inspector-general of police will say Azmin's face is still blurred," he jibed.

***

Enough said.

Will Bersatu in Muafakat resolve seat allocation issue?

 

So, Bersatu looks set to join Muafakat. Will this will resolve the seat allocation issue?, a friend asked me. The answer is of course not!

Have a look at this: Gombak Umno indicates it won't give Azmin free pass to defend his seat.

This is but a microcosm of what will happen throughout the country. Enough said.

Harapan has the upper hand in polls

So, we're gonna see polls in Sabah within 60 days. This will be very interesting. Sabah politics (and indeed, East Malaysian politics) is a bit different from Peninsula politics. The dynamics are a little bit different and over there, warlords seem to have a disproportionate influence over the electorate. Nevertheless, one dynamic at play is exactly the same as in the Peninsula: We are looking at a backdoor government attempt.

In the Peninsula, the perpetrators managed to pull it off, thanks in no small part to Dr M abruptly resigning in a miscalculated attempt to consolidate his power. Perhaps learning from Dr M's mistake, Shafie did the right thing and asked for a dissolution rather than simply allowing his opponents to take over by way of statutory declarations or some other means of proving they have the numbers.

The constitution allows him to do this and he did it. Now, it is up to the voters to decide their own future. Do they want to go with the Harapan-friendly side or the Perikatan-friendly side?

One thing is for sure though, the voters know who the frogs are. These are the people who betrayed the electorate's choice in GE14. I don't think voters like that and I think many, if not most, of the frogs will be punished by the electorate.

The other problem, the Perikatan-friendly side has is that Bersatu and UMNO are already at loggerheads about seat allocation. I've said many times, this is a problem that Perikatan component parties will struggle with. Over at the Peninsula side, this problem will be even more challenging with PAS in the mix. All three core parties — Bersatu, UMNO, PAS — are going after the same demographic. None will give an inch. All will want to claim as many seats as possible.

So, in a nutshell, there are two core problems Perikatan faces:
a) Voters will know who the frogs are and they will punish them
b) The Perikatan side won't be able to resolve the seat allocation problem

Haparan has its own set of problems but it doesn't have those two issues above. That fact alone gives it an upper hand against Perikatan in GE15.

Harapan should just prepare for GE15

With each passing day, it's becoming painfully obvious that the best option for Harapan is to prepare itself for GE15. Forget about doing a counter-coup against the backdoor government of Perikatan.

I know it's very tempting to want to do a counter-coup when Perikatan is just hanging by a tread. But where are you going to get the numbers from? Answer: Frogs.

If they can jump into your camp for now, they can jump into another camp when they get a better offer. Forget about dealing with frogs. Focus on GE15.

If nothing else, what Harapan has got going for itself is that it's more or less sorted out its seat allocations. DAP, PKR and Amanah each have got their seats carved out, as per GE14.

What different is that among themselves, they need to decide who will contest in Bersatu and Warisan seats.

Yes, they should contest wherever Bersatu and Warisan contests. The reason for contesting against Bersatu is obvious, it's now an opponent not an ally. While Dr M's faction, comprising 6 MPs might not be an opponent, they aren't committed allies either. The same can be said about Warisan, which is why Harapan would be fools not to contest in those seats and try to win them for itself.

If they give way to Bersatu and Warisan, who go on to win those seats, we will be back to status quo, with Shafie and Dr M using their leverage to block Anwar from becoming PM. Might as well contest against these parties, win a few seats and try to get enough to form a majority without the help of external parties.

This really is what Harapan should be focusing on instead of daydreaming about launching a counter-coup. Let Perikatan implode. Even if Perikatan manages to stay together until GE15, they won't be able to come to an agreement on seat allocations.

The reason for this has been well articulated in many places but in a nutshell, it is this: Bersatu, UMNO and PAS are all targeting the same demographic. None will want to budge an inch on seats that they consider theirs. And there are a lot of overlapping seats.

More spin from Dr M

Dr M says it was Lim Guan Eng who mooted that Shafie become PM. That may very well be true but it was clearly a suggestion. In fact, both DAP and Amanah said immediately after the meeting that this was a matter that needed to be discussed by Harapan (of which Dr M is not a member, nor is Shafie).

So, Harapan had a meeting and decided they would stick with Anwar instead. That's Harapan's prerogative. And it's the right move, by the way. Why have a coalition only to propose someone outside the coalition as your PM candidate? Doesn't make sense.

He goes on to say that though there were several MPs who were willing to join the opposition, they would not do so if Anwar was the PM candidate.

Well, Dr M has a problem too. There are 38 MPs (from PKR) who don't want him or Shafie to be PM. So how is he going to resolve that?

Lastly, he says: “When I stepped down (in February) and everyone was asked to state who they wanted, I should have been given full support by Harapan because they told me they supported me fully."

Yes, Harapan supported him fully as PM, but for Harapan, not as PM of a unity government whereby he could pick and choose whomever he wanted without consultation with others from Harapan. And he conveniently doesn't mention that when Harapan asked him to attend a meeting to discuss how to get back control of the government, he refused. That's when they decided, it had to be Anwar. 

A microcosm of what will happen across the country

Gombak Umno, PAS won't work with Azmin:

1. Not surprising
2. Is a reflection of what will happen in other constituencies
3. UMNO, PAS and Bersatu will not be able to resolve seat allocations. The demographics they are each going after are almost the same.

Dr M's spin on reasons for resignation rings hollow

Dr M claims that the reason he resigned is that the Harapan government had collapsed when Muhyiddin pulled Bersatu out of the coalition. This is what he said:

Strictly speaking, when Bersatu left Harapan, the coalition ceased to be the government. This meant that all members of the cabinet lost their ministerial positions. This included me. I had lost my position as prime minister. Resigning was only a formality.

But the reality is that there was no immediate collapse because Muhyiddin didn't clearly have a majority either. In fact, the King said he told Dr M not to resign but he insisted on doing so. Why?

Was it because he was a "gentleman" and knowing he had lost control of the majority, he decided to resign? Or could it be for another reason? Might that reason be that he wanted to be free from the shackles of Harapan and be able to form a so-called "unity government" where he could pick and choose whichever MP he wanted from either side without consulting any parties. In other words, a government where everyone is beholden to him while he is accountable to no one.

What made him think he could pull off such a ridiculous scheme? Well, at that time Bersatu, PAS and UMNO were saying they wanted him as PM. Meanwhile Harapan parties were also saying they wanted him as PM. So theoretically he had a super-majority in Parliament where both the ruling coalition and the opposition wanted him as PM.

He probably figured, if UMNO and gang were to reject him, he'd still have Harapan to fall back on. And if Harapan were to reject him, he'd still have UMNO and gang supporting him. With so much support all around, he became over-confident. So imagine his shock when both sides decided to reject his unity government pipe dream.

It's interesting that Najib himself has responded to Dr M's spin on his resignation, pointing out: "He even ignored Harapan's request to have a meeting a day after he resigned to discuss how they could save the Harapan government."

This is what led Harapan to then change its PM candidate to Anwar. Because Dr M had abandoned them. It was only later that the were able to come together again to try to find common ground. Strangely, both DAP and Amanah were keen on having Dr M as Harapan's PM candidate once more. But that was stymied (rightly so) by PKR.

Eventually, DAP and Amanah came around to supporting Anwar again. And that's where we are at right now. I don't think it's a bad situation for Harapan. Together they have 91 MPs. What does Dr M have? A total of 6 MPs. If you lump Warisan in there, he has 15 MPs.

It's very clear who has the upper hand here, even if Dr M and Shafie refuse to recognize the reality of the situation. They are simply in no position to make any demands.

No, Dr M did not topple BN, Harapan did

It's interesting how Dr M's acolytes keep pushing the canard that it was Dr M that toppled the BN government.

Harapan and its allies defeated BN.

DAP won 42 seats
PKR won 47 seats
Amanah won 11 seats

And how many did Bersatu win? A grand total of 13. Warisan won 8. You add those two together and you get 21. So, Dr M's faction won 21 seats. Are you telling me 21 seats defeated BN? No, 21 seats combined with Harapan's 100 seats was able to topple BN.

If Dr M and his cohorts' argument is that without the 21, Harapan couldn't have formed the government, they are right.

But it can certainly be said that without Harapan's 100, Dr M's team wouldn't have been able to form the government either.

I'm not great at math but it doesn't take a mathematical genius to know that 100 is a much higher number than 21. As such, it would be fair to say that Harapan contributed more to the victory than Dr M and Warisan.

Today, after all the defections, Harapan is left with 91 seats. And what is Dr M's faction left with? They've got 6 from Bersatu and 9 from Warisan = 15.

Again, my math ain't too good but I'm pretty confident 91 is a whole lot more than 15. Yet, it's this gang of 15 who wants to tell the gang of 91 what to do. It'd be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

Wan Saiful says Dr M adamant on denying Anwar premiership

This is what Wan Saiful Wan Jan says:

"In various closed-door discussions and meetings after GE14 attended by this author, Mahathir was both adamant and consistent that he did not want to see Anwar succeed him as prime minister despite his public statements (to the contrary). 

"To Mahathir, Anwar is someone who would neither champion the Malays nor defend the privileges accorded to ethnic Malays by the Federal Constitution.

"Mahathir also believed that Anwar's plans could be thwarted if the three major Malay parties, Bersatu, Umno and PAS, were brought together so that a new Malay-led government could be formed - doing away with the Chinese-dominated DAP and the multiracial PKR in Pakatan Harapan in the process."

***

Now, at the time of writing, we haven't seen any rebuttal from Dr M himself or any of his supporters. I suspect we will see that soon enough. They are likely to say it's a lie or spin it somehow as being taken out of context etc.

In the absence of any audio recordings of such conversations, we won't be able to know for sure whether what Wan Saiful says is true or not. But we can ask ourselves the following:

a) Does this sound like something Dr M would do?
b) Is it in line with his character to be that way?
c) Does it strike you as true?

What's Dr M's game plan?

Dr M doesn't accept Harapan's choice of PM, which is Anwar, and he plans to continue with his efforts to make his choice, Shafie, the PM should Perikatan get toppled.

Now, if you do the math, you will see that he basically has 14 people in his block (5 formerly from Bersatu and 9 from Warisan). That's all he's got: 14.

So, on what basis does he think he can get at least 112 MPs on his side? There is only one possibility I can think of, which is the following sequence of assumptions:

He can get GPS to switch sides. That gives him another 18. So, his total would add up to 14 + 18 = 32.

Even if he believes he can get DAP and Amanah to support his coalition, that would be only another 42 + 11 = 53. That gives him a grand total of 32 + 53 = 85. Still far short of the 112 he needs to control Parliament.

PKR has 38. If you add that into the mix, you will have 123, a comfortable majority.

So, no matter what, he needs PKR to be on board. How does he hope to do so? Probably not by appealing directly to PKR. He and Anwar are at loggerheads. No, he is probably hoping that should he manage to get GPS on board, both DAP and Amanah would pressure PKR to hop on board.

That must be his calculation. There is no other configuration I can think of that would work.

PAS also has 18 MPs, but he can't bring PAS into the coalition, Amanah and DAP would object. He can't bring UMNO into the equation. Again, Amanah and DAP would object.

The only bloc that he could possibly bring in is GPS, with its 18 MPs, and even then, he would still need PKR for its 38 MPs.

So, he must be banking on peer pressure from Amanah and DAP for PKR to give in and agree to join his coalition, on his terms.

Politics is the art of the impossible but this is soooooo not gonna happen.

He's over-estimating Amanah and DAP's ability to sway PKR, and underestimating PKR's resolves not to fooled by him again. "Once bitten, twice shy," as they say.

Dr M may have a game plan but it's one that he's bound to lose.

Zahid tells it like it is

BN wants to contest all 'traditional' seats, Zahid says Umno "owns" Bersatu seat.

Enough said.

Choice words from Annuar Musa

"For the time being, we stand with the prime minister," said Annuar Musa.

The operative word here is "for the time being". Ahem!

Choice words from Shahrir Samad

"BN not only has to share with Bersatu but also the G10 comprising supporters of Azmin Ali," Shahrir said, adding that "Azmin and his G10 does not even have a party."

Anwar checkmates Dr M

Dr M is used to getting his way. When he was premier for 22 years the first time around, he had his way on practically everything and outfoxed every foe he came across.

In his 22 months as premier for the second time around, the rest of Pakatan Harapan allowed him to pretty much have his way on everything. And he threw it all away in an amazing display of hubris by abruptly resigning without consulting any of the coalition partners.

Of course he thought by doing so, we would be able to start with a clean slate and pick whomever he wanted from both the Harapan side and the Muafakat side (UMNO + PAS), to form what he called a "unity government" — one in which everyone was accountable to him while he was accountable to no one.

Not only did Harapan reject this, so did Muafakat, leaving him with the support of a total of five Bersatu members (including himself).His own trusted lieutenant, Muhyiddin, and his blue-eyed boy, Azmin, went on to betray him and set up Perikatan.

Dr M's response? He went on to criticize Anwar while trying to reorganize a Harapan Plus coalition that would presumably include GPS in order to win back control over the Parliament. PKR, not surprisingly, balked at this idea.

To which Dr M then gave an ultimatum. If PKR was not willing to work with him to defeat Muhyiddin, he would proceed without PKR and just work with DAP, Amanah, Warisan and presumably GPS, to form the majority he needed.

I'm not sure why Dr M didn't do the math. Even if he were to secure the support of Harapan Plus and GPS, without PKR (which at last count, had 38 MPs) there is no way he can get the numbers to form a majority.

He also erroneously assumed that DAP and Amanah would abandon PKR if they had to choose between him and Anwar. That is a major flaw in his thinking. Yes, DAP and Amanah would have preferred it if Anwar could accept Dr M as PM. But if push came to shove, and they had to decide between the two, the answer is obvious who they would back.

And sure enough, they have come out with a statement that they back Anwar as their PM candidate. This should come as no surprise to anyone though I somehow think Dr M will be surprised when he hears the news.

Like I said, he's used to having things his way but he's been miscalculating every step of the way ever since he decided to resign in order to try to form his so-called unity government.

Harapan members have been through thick and thin together. Why should DAP and Amanah desert PKR in order to join forces with the remnants of Dr M's Bersatu?

Besides, I think DAP and Amanah also did the math. Dr M has five MPs. If you include Warisan's nine MPs, you will have a grand total of 14 MPs. Even if you were to throw in GPS's 18 members, that only adds up to 32. PKR alone has 38.

More importantly, DAP and Amanah know full well that GPS would not be a reliable partner, even if it were to agree to cross over in the first place (which is rather uncertain). Warisan has never declared its allegiance to Harapan, only to Dr M. As for Dr M himself, well, we know his track record.

So, the choice was obvious for both DAP and Amanah: Go with a bunch of parties that are not even part of Harapan or stick with a trusted ally which is a founding member of Harapan.

It makes all the sense in the world for DAP and Amanah to stick with PKR. Together they have 91 MPs. That's 21 MPs shy of forming a majority. So, can they win an additional 21 more seats in GE15? Let's look at the numbers.

Bersatu contested in 52 seats in GE14 (and won 13). Harapan must contest in all 52 of those seats. For good measure, Harapan should also contest in all the 17 seats that Warisan had contested in. That's a total of 69 (52 + 17) seats, of which Harapan must win at least 21 of them.

Not easy. But not impossible either. It's what they need to do. There's no point in relying on deals with GPS or Warisan or the remnants of Dr M's Bersatu, to form the majority. Harapan needs to get the majority on its own.

Then, if they want to, they can consider — from a position of strength — whether to accept other parties who wish to make up the "Plus" in Harapan Plus. Crucially, by having a majority on its own, Harapan would not be held to ransom by any "kingmaker" who can threaten to destroy the coalition if it doesn't get what it wants.

This must be the strategy that Harapan goes for: Aim to win GE15 on its own rather than to try to pull off some kind of counter coup that puts it at the mercy of kingmakers.

Anwar's thinly-veiled jab

“We should not act as if we are desperate and forced to rely on a brittle branch that will later stab us as what has happened before. (By) resigning as he likes without referring to anyone, he caused a mess for us, breaking our principles as well as our manifesto and other things,” Anwar said.

Hmm, I wonder who he could be referring to...

Khaled Nordin tells it like it is

UMNO PM candidate if we win the most seats.

Enough said.

Ku Li tells it like it is

Ku Li: Bersatu shouldn't come into the picture.

Enough said.

PN's seat allocation problem

Interesting analysis by Malaysiakini about the "fake" PN list.

Fact 1: In GE14, UMNO fielded 120 candidates and had 54 winners.
Fact 2: Bersatu fielded 52 candidates and won 13.
Fact 3: PAS fielded 154 candidates and won 18.

The PN Dilemma:
1. UMNO, which perceives itself as the Big Brother in any coalition, will want to contest in many seats in order to maintain its dominance in terms of seats.
2. Bersatu, which currently helms PN, wants to get more seats than any other party to ensure that it stays in charge.
3. PAS which fielded the most number of candidates, will want to continue to do so.

Seat allocation in as close to an impossible feat as you could find when it comes to these three parties, all of whom are targeting the same electorate.

Harapan has its problems but not like this. Harapan has already sorted out its seat allocations among PKR, DAP and Amanah. The only question is whether they will contest seats that Dr M's faction and Warisan are contesting. I think they should. They cannot rely on these people to necessarily support Harapan. So they need to get enough numbers on their own, to form a government.

It's not Warisan Plus but Harapan Plus

Growing support for third PM candidate in Harapan Plus

That headline above ☝ is misleading. If you just read the headline, you might assume that DAP, Amanah and maybe even PKR leaders are supportive of this. Actually it's Warisan people and Dr M's people who are supportive. So, it's basically the "Plus" side that wants this. Not the Harapan side.

It's ridiculous to even moot Shafie's name as a PM candidate. Warisan has never pledged commitment to Harapan. Their commitment is to Dr M. Why should he even be in consideration as Harapan Plus's candidate for PM?

In that same article, a Bersatu source is quoted as saying: "If they do not agree, then we have to go against each other in the election."

That's precisely what PKR and Harapan should prepare for. They can't go into GE15 assuming that Dr M's faction and Warisan are allies. They have to be ready to field candidates in all the seats that Perikatan is fielding, regardless of whether Bersatu or Warisan are fielding candidates there too.

I've long said, Harapan needs to win GE15 without the Plus. Only then will it be a stable government.

After the election is over, and with a solid victory in hand, if the Plus side wants to support the government, fine. They can. But Harapan will be welcoming them from a position of strength and will not be subject to the whims and fancies of any kingmakers.

Let's do the math, shall we?

So, Dr M claims that Pakatan Harapan couldn't have won GE14 without his Bersatu party. Is he right?

Let's do the math. Harapan won 113 seats on its own, which was enough to control Parliament and form the government.

Bersatu won 13 seats. So if you deduct those 13 from the 113 number that they got, they would have been left with exactly 100 seats. That's not enough to form the government. So, yes, Dr M is right that without Bersatu, Harapan would not have been able to form the government.

But lo and behold. Without Amanah's 11 seats, you couldn't have formed the government either. And without DAP's 42 seats, you definitely couldn't have formed the government. Most certainly without PKR's 47 seats, it would be impossible.

So, what is he talking about? The harsh reality is that without any of the component parties, Harapan would not have made it.

Who needs who more?

When it comes to negotiations, the one with the upper hand is always the one who can walk away from the deal. In the case of the Opposition (Harapan Plus) coming together to overthrow Perikatan, the stumbling block seems to be over who would become the new PM should they succeed in their goals of defeating Muhyiddin and gang.

From what we can gather through news reports, Dr M wants six months as PM after which he would hand the position over to Anwar. Why does one get a sense of deja vu when one hears this? If you were Anwar would you trust such a deal? Can you blame him for insisting that he be the PM candidate for Harapan Plus?

Dr M's supporters are saying that Harapan has no chance of taking over the government without Dr M and his supporters. While that may be true what is also undeniably true is that Dr M and his supporters have no chance of overthrowing Perikatan wihtout PKR, which is now solidly behind Anwar.

So, both sides need each other. But who needs the other more?

If there's no deal Anwar can afford to wait for GE15 to lead Harapan to victory. As for Dr M, who is now 95, time isn't exactly on his side. If push comes to shove, Anwar can walk away. Can Dr M?

Ultimately, he has to decide: live with the fact that Muhyiddin outwitted him or live with the fact that it's Anwar who is going to become the next PM. It's one or the other because the option of Dr M himself becoming the PM is not an option as long as Anwar says no deal.

PKR has 38 MPs. Without those 38, you cannot form a coalition government even if GPS (from Sarawak) switches sides. It's just not possible. The numbers are not there.

Sooner or later, Dr M has to face the facts that what he's got to do is pick the least worst option: Muhyiddin or Anwar? Who is worse from him?

If he chooses to live with the fact that Muhyiddin shall remain PM until GE15, fine. Anwar can continue to work with Harapan and plan for GE15. What can Dr M do with his band of four or five men from Bersatu who are still aligned with him?

Anwar is fully aware of what the score is. That's why he's holding out and refusing to just give in. Harapan parties did enough kowtowing during their 22 months in power. It seems DAP and Amanah are still prepared to kowtow some more to Dr M. But not Anwar. And who can blame him?

Dr M's & Anwar's choices

Perikatan is hanging by a thread. With just a one MP majority in Parliament, it could crumble any time. But is the Opposition united enough to form a credible coalition government to take over, should this happen? Right now, it doesn't look like it.

For Dr M, the choice is whether to accept Anwar as the next PM or to let Muhyiddin continue as PM. Neither option is ideal or desirable for Dr M but he has no choice. It's down to which the least worst option.

If Perikatan is as horrible as he says it is, then the answer is obvious: he must pick Anwar over Muhyiddin. But for Dr M, that's actually a really hard choice although to most supporters of Harapan, the right choice is obvious.

For Anwar, the choice is either accepting Dr M as the next PM or living with the fact that Muhyiddin will be the PM until GE15 (assuming Perikatan doesn't implode first).

From a strategic standpoint, his choice is obvious too. If Dr M is not willing to budge and is not prepared to accept Anwar as the next PM, there is no reason for Anwar to participate in the toppling of Perikatan. Why should he? Just to make Dr M the PM again?

It's much better that he let Muhyiddin continue to be PM. Already, you can see Perikatan imploding day by day. The infighting will only worsen not improve as the election draws closer. After the Covid-19 pandemic ravages our economy, Muhyiddin won't be a very popular PM at all. This sets the scene for a major Harapan victory in three years' time, with him at the helm.

Anwar's choice is obvious if Dr M does not accept him as the next PM. Just let the status quo be.

Mahathir has to choose: Anwar or Muhyiddin as PM

Dr M had a meeting with his strategic partners in the Opposition, minus PKR, who didn't attend the meeting.

With Sri Gading MP Shahruddin Salleh quitting Perikatan, Muhyiddin now has a majority of one in Parliament. It's probably just a matter of time before another one crosses over and then it's a hung Parliament, which could lead to snap polls but will more likely lead to furious rounds of horsetrading on both sides.

There is plenty of speculation that Dr M might be able to convince the GPS coalition in Sarawak to join him. Theoretically, that could give Dr M's coalition up to 128 MPs (the current Opposition has 110 and GPS has 18).

At 128, that's a pretty strong position but there's only one problem for Dr M: It's not a given that PKR is on board. Without PKR, that's 39 MPs gone, leaving Dr M's coalition with 89 (that's assuming GPS is on board). In short, there is no way Dr M can cobble together a coalition government without PKR's involvement.

PKR is playing it right by signalling that it is not necessary on board with Dr M's grand scheme to topple Perikatan. What's the point of doing so if all it means is Dr M is PM again. After all that's happened there is no reason for PKR to want that. It might as well wait for GE15 to happen and so that Harapan can win the election outright, without the help of Dr M or Warisan or GPS or anybody that's not in Harapan. PKR, DAP and Amanah could do it alone. And they should. Otherwise, they will always be held hostage by kingmakers who will threaten to leave if they don't get things their way.

What Anwar and gang are basically telling the rest is: "You may have the numbers if you assume PKR is in there with you but don't take that for granted."

If they want PKR in, they have to agree to PKR's (and actually Harapan's) choice of PM: which is Anwar. Anything short of that, they shouldn't agree. They can afford to wait another three years for GE15 to happen. Mahathir can't. He's already 95. It's not exactly like he's got time on his side.

If he wants to see Perikatan toppled, he's got to make concessions, chief of which is that should this new coalition topple Perikatan, the person to be PM is Anwar. This would be a test of how important he think it is to topple Muhyiddin and gang, who he accuses of conspiring with crooks. If he really cares about that, he should accept Anwar as PM.

Ultimately, Mahathir has to choose: Anwar as PM or Muhyiddin. He might not like either but what's the least worst option? That is the question.

There's no taking over the government if PKR is not on board

There's a lot of talk about Harapan having the numbers to topple Muhyiddin's government. That might or might not be true but one thing's certain, even if Dr M has the support of Warisan, DAP and Amanah (as has been speculated), without PKR, they can't possibly have the numbers.

If Dr M's intent is for him to be PM again, PKR isn't likely to support the overthrow. Why should they... just for Dr M to be PM again? Doesn't make sense. If overthrowing Perikatan is so important to Dr M, he should agree that should the change of government happen, it's Anwar who will become PM and he would only serve as an advisor or senior minister, not the PM.

Anything short of that, PKR should not agree. Frankly, neither should DAP or Amanah. After all, it was Dr M's actions and inaction that ultimately led to the downfall of the Harapan government. He purposely propped up Azmin just because he was a rival to Anwar. And at the very least, he tolerated (if not encouraged) Muhyiddin and Azmin's negotiations with UMNO and PAS. He took in UMNO frogs (some 13 of them, who ended jumping back). And in the end, it was his party, Bersatu that broke away from Harapan to form Perikatan.

Why should they back him as PM again? They should back Anwar. We don't know that they don't. While it's been speculated that they support Dr M as PM we don't know that for a fact. Maybe they are telling him, "We will support the overthrow of Perikatan but we want Anwar as PM." We just don't know.

But we do know PKR doesn't want to play ball unless it has some things its way. No longer will it allow Dr M to dictate things in Harapan. Dr M and his gang aren't even in Harapan anymore. They are the "plus" in Harapan Plus.

Will Anwar and gang give in for the sake of overthrowing Perikatan? I hope they don't. They should stand firm. Anwar is the Opposition leader. He should be the PM if there is a change in government, not Dr M, who had his chance but screwed it up. Big time.

Is there a counter-Sheraton Move in the works?

Salahuddin Ayub claims Harapan already has the numbers to topple Muhyiddin's government. Does Harapan really have the numbers? Or is this just psych warfare?

If it's just psych warfare why bother? The answer is that it works. When a coalition of rivals has razor-thin majority of only two MPs, everybody who has thrown their lot with that coalition has to be constantly concerned about crossovers. If just a small handful of MPs defect, the Perikatan government collapses and Harapan takes over.

As such, Perikatan MPs have to constantly think about whether it makes more sense for them to stay put of jump ship. They don't want to be left behind once the frogs start jumping. And believe me, jump they shall, the moment there's any inkling that Harapan will be taking over.

A lot of MPs have bet their political careers on Perikatan being able to last as the government of the day. They have a lot to lose if Perikatan is toppled. To them, their only chance of avoiding being thrown into the political wilderness is to jump ship before anyone else does and say to Harapan, "You see, I was willing to jump over to you guys way before anyone else," in the hopes that Harapan will forgive and forget.

So, Perikatan MPs can't possibly sleep well these days. They know that if Harapan should be able to regain power, their goose is cooked.

Harapan MPs have got nothing to lose anymore. They've already been betrayed and backstabbed. They might as well continue with the psych warfare. And they will. Watch it intensify in the days ahead.

What happens if some PN MPs jump ship?

Speculation is rife that the ground is fast shifting under Muhyiddin's feet. With just a tiny majority (113 MPs), all it takes is for two MPs to jump ship and his government falls. Well, technically, it'd be a hung Parliament with 111 on each side.

On paper, that could mean a snap election but before that happens, you can be sure there will be a lot of horsetrading and a lot of jumping ship here and there. It won't stay 111 for long.

Actually it doesn't even take two people to get things moving. Even if one person jumps ship, it already forces everyone to start making their political calculations. For those in Perikatan, they will have to think: "Do I stick with PN or do I go where the momentum is?" If they feel many others are jumping over to the Opposition, they too will jump ship in their belief that the Opposition will soon become the government.

The question is, is Harapan as eager to take in frogs as they were last time (to be fair, only Bersatu took in a lot of frogs. PKR took in a small handful. Amanah was open to it. DAP steadfastly opposed it). I believe today, if some frogs say they want to jump over, the message to them would be: You are welcome to join the Opposition but you won't be part of Harapan. You will be an independent MP who is supportive of Harapan.

That would be the smart thing to do. And no, Harapan leaders are not idiots. They know what it's like dealing with frogs. You can't trust them. But if they want to jump your way, you might as well make full use of them.

So, are there some MPs who are willing to change sides? UMNO Supreme Council Member Mohd Razlan Rafii said the shifting of allegiance by a number of Bersatu MPs to Dr M won't guarantee his return as prime minister.

"Even the shift of four to five Bersatu MPs to Mahathir's team does not guarantee he can become prime minister again," Razlan said in a statement.

That statement is interesting? Is he referring to the four of five MPs already on Dr M's side or is he talking about four or five additional MPs moving over? Not sure. But he is right in saying that even if Harapan is somehow able to form the majority, there is no guarantee that Dr M will be their candidate for PM. After all, the Opposition leader is Anwar, not Dr M.

Whether Harapan really has 129 MPs or just enough to form the majority, nobody knows, except the top Harapan leadership. But there's no doubt that a psych war is going on and PN people are getting spooked.

They are more than fully aware that their majority is wafer thin. It can crumble any time. All it takes is for one MP to be unhappy with his lot and the floodgates will open. Then it's a free-for-all with everybody trying to figure out how to not bet on the wrong horse.

Once bitten, twice shy

Why Harapan is so reluctant to name Anwar as their PM candidate is a mystery. It's so obvious that the candidate is him. Who else could it be?

I can't imagine under any scenario that it would be Dr M. While there are those, including Khalid Samad, who are in favour of working with Dr M again, I don't think any of them think it's a good idea for Dr M to become Harapan's PM candidate again.

He had his chance and he screwed it up royally.

The situation is very clear to everyone. Harapan, which consists of PKR, DAP and Amanah have to get enough seats in GE15 to form the government on their own. They cannot, and must not, rely on Dr M's faction.

They can work together with Dr M's faction to oppose Muhyiddin and gang. There's strength in numbers. And post-election, assuming Harapan has won, they can also welcome Dr M's faction being supportive of Harapan. They can even nominate a few of those guys as deputy ministers in return for their support. But they must not be dependent on them. They must have the numbers to form the government on their own. Otherwise just a small handful of them will become kingmakers again and that spells trouble.

Najib has a point

It's normal for politicians to spin things so that it makes them look good — or at least not bad.

Dr M says: "I remain loyal to my comrades who fought with me in the 14th general election."

Najib tweeted:

"If you had no intention to betray Harapan, you would have discussed with Harapan leaders before you resigned.

"Did you discuss or notify them before you went to see the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to hand in your resignation letter as PM?

"You didn't. Why? Be honest about what actually happened then," Najib tweeted in response to Malaysiakini's article.

While it's true that Dr M did not betray Harapan in the way that Muhyiddin and Azmin did, it cannot be said that he remained loyal to his comrades who fought with him in the 14th general election.

After he abruptly resigned as PM, his comrades invited him to attended a Harapan presidential council meeting to try to secure control over the government. Dr M rejected that. Instead he mooted something completely different, which was a unity government where he alone could pick and choose whom he wanted in his cabinet. Basically it would be a government where everyone would be beholden to him and he would be accountable to no one.

Not only did Harapan reject that. So did the other side. Everyone rejected it.

Najib has a good point. If he was so loyal to his comrades, why did he resign unilaterally, without discussing it with them first? The answer is obvious. He thought he could pull off his unity government plan without a hitch.

Backing the wrong horse?

I find it intriguing — and pretty amazing, actually — at the number of politicians who have jumped ship from Harapan and throw their lot with Muhyiddin and Azmin ad hoc coalition, called Perikatan.

This is a coalition with a majority of two. It's also a coalition of rivals. It will be a wonder if they can make it intact all the way to GE15. But even if they do, seat allocations will be a thorny issue, to say the least.

For the sake of discussion, let's just say they somehow managed to work out seat allocations so that whoever is the incumbent gets to defend their seat, it's highly unlikely that the frogs who jumped over will be elected.

Why? Because with a few exceptions, most people don't vote for personalities. They vote for the coalition they want to run the country. That's why when PAS was with Pakatan, even non-Malays voted for PAS. It's also why despite Bersatu being a Malay only party and Amanah being an Islamic party, non-Malays and non-Muslims were willing to vote for these parties. Because they were voting for Pakatan.

Do these turncoats actually think Harapan supporters who voted for them last time will still vote for them now that they are aligned with UMNO?

All these people who have jumped ship have shown their true colors and the voters will know who they are. The electorate will not be kind to them.

Although Dr M was more than happy to accept frogs the last time around, he's no longer in Harapan though he's with the Opposition. If Harapan wins, he can take all the frogs he wants — though he's be a fool to do so — but it wouldn't affect Harapan which, for the most part, are anti-hopping. Amanah had flirted with the idea of taking in frogs and PKR too. DAP has steadfastly been against it. But now, after all that's happened, I doubt any party in Harapan would accept frogs.

So, these politicians who have thrown their lot with Muhyiddin and gang, if Harapan comes back to power, they will either be out of a job, or if they somehow managed to win, will be in the Opposition bench for good.

What Anwar must not do

Dr M wanted to hold a press conference after the parliamentary sitting. Anwar didn't attend. Nor did any other PKR leaders. No official reason was given by Anwar but the message is clear. He's the Opposition leader and he will play second fiddle to Dr M no more.

They might be together in the Opposition and they might have a common foe in Muhyiddin. But there will be no more kowtowing to Dr M. That was a mistake Anwar and the other Harapan leaders made the first time around, in hope that by kowtowing to Dr M, it would encourage good behavior. It had the opposite effect.

Dr M cultivated Azmin as a rival to Anwar. He neglected the Harapan manifesto, saying it was made during a time when they didn't really think they could win. He allowed Muhyiddin and Azmin and gang to have negotiations with UMNO and did nothing to nip crossover ideas in the bud because he liked to keep his Harapan colleagues on their toes. For from reigning him in, those Pakatan leaders walked on eggshells around Dr M, afraid of upsetting him.

There's a saying, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Anwar would surely be a fool if he gets fooled twice by Dr M. According to this report, Anwar is supposed to have said he did not want to attend the press conference because he not want to be used. It doesn't look like he's going to be fooled twice.

If Harapan gets back into power again in the near future, there are a few things Anwar must not allow to happen:

a) Accept crossovers from UMNO and PAS.
Once Harapan is in power, there are bound to be some frogs wanting to crossover. None of the Harapan parties should take in any frogs.

b) Let the smallest party dictate things.
When you have a coalition government, small parties sometimes play the subservient role, like what MIC and MCA does. Perhaps they do realize that in fact, they are kingmakers because if they should leave the coalition, it no longer has the majority. But it doesn't have the gumption to act like a kingmaker. But sometimes, far from being subservient, the smaller party, knowing full well that it is the kingmaker, will act like one and given the rest the impression that it will exercise the nuclear option if it doesn't have its way. Then the small party effectively becomes the leader of the coalition as everyone else kowtows to it. This is what Bersatu did and Harapan must never allow it to happen again. Appeasement never works.

c) Allow Dr M to be seen as the leader of the Opposition.
Dr M is outspoken but if he says anything that does not jive with Harapan's ethos or sensibilities, Anwar needs to call him out on it and correct the message. So what if it upsets Dr M? What's he going to do, threaten to pull Bersatu out of Harapan? It's already out of Harapan!

Perikatan is a very weak coalition of rivals. While it may be useful for the Opposition to have Dr M on their side, whacking away at Muhyiddin, they don't need him. In GE15, they can win the majority without Bersatu (or Warisan for that matter). So, there is no need to kowtow to anybody.