New government? It's a numbers game

Speculation has reached fever pitch that Dr M is trying to form a new coalition government involving the following elements:

a) Bersatu (26)
b) Azmin faction of PKR (supposedly 15 or so)
c) BN (UMNO + MCA + MIC) (42)
d) PAS (18)
e) GPS (18)
f) Warisan (9)

Together (if everyone were to agree to a new coalition) they would presumably have a total of 26 + 15 + 42 + 18 + 9 = 128 (more than enough to form the majority).

The problem with the simplistic calculation above is that it assumes everybody in every one of those parties would agree to such a new alliance. But it would be wrong to assume that. Surely there would be some members in some of those parties who would object. Similarly, we also cannot assume that everyone in DAP and Amanah would be opposed to this. It's possible that some might jump ship and join the new coalition.

So in terms of the numbers (i.e. who has the majority) it's really hard to say. Is it conceivable that Dr M could cobble together a new coalition that can give him the numbers he needs to form a new government? It is possible course, and for all we know he might just be able to pull it off. But it would come at a terrible price.

Even if he were to be able to arrange a marriage of convenience among these competing parties in order to topple the current government, fractures will emerge very quickly. If Dr M thought it was hard dealing with a largely compliant DAP, PKR and Amanah for the past two years, imagine what it will be like for him dealing with four other parties, each of which think of itself as a king-maker and each of which will make their own demands of the other.

One big difference between the dynamics of PH and this new coalition is that the other PH component parties were not willing to use the nuclear option of pulling out of the coalition if it doesn't get its way (only Bersatu was willing to do that). So, instead of upsetting Dr M, they tried to appease him for two years.

Ironically, Dr M once said that unlike in BN, the parties within PH were more or less equals with each party needing the others in order for PH to be the government. Actually it wasn't true that they were more or less equals in terms of numbers. PKR has 50, DAP 42, Bersatu 26 and Amanah 11 MPs, so they are not actually equal. Yet, far from PKR and DAP behaving like the dominant parties in the coalition, it was Bersatu that always acted as if it was the indispensable one.

This will not be the case in a Bersatu-UMNO-PAS-GPS-Warisan coalition. Unlike in PH where the other component parties walked on eggshells for two year, Bersatu's prospective new partners will not hesistate to make their demands and, like Bersatu, they will threaten to use the nuclear option if they don't get their way. Imagine five Bersatus in one coalition. What a powder keg that will be.

It will be an incredibly unstable coalition with each of the five key parties believing themselves to be the linchpin of the coalition -- and behaving accordingly. But even if they don't implode before GE15, what such a team-up will do is give voters a clear and stark choice of the kind of government they want for the future of this country.

Bersatu never fitted well within PH. It was like a mini-UMNO within a multi-racial coalition. Its presence muddied PH's progressive, multiracial message. Once rid of the baggage that is Bersatu, PH could then project a clearer, more consistent vision of what it has to offer Malaysians, and contrast that to what the other side has to offer. The choice will be very clear for Malaysians. And that's a good thing.