The least worst option

Surprise, surprise -- PAS and UMNO no longer support Dr M.

With the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan government and with neither side having a clear majority, there seems to be three options available to Dr M to form a new government:
a) Unity government
b) Minority government
c) Snap polls

The worst idea of all is that of a unity government. It's not that the concept itself is necessarily bad. There are countries with successful unity governments. But in the case of Malaysia, it's just not viable because of the parties involved. It makes absolutely no sense for PH parties to team up with UMNO or PAS.

You couldn't even call such a collaboration a marriage of convenience. A farce is more like it. Or you could call it a recipe for disaster. Whatever you call it, it has zero viability.

If PH parties couldn't even get along with Bersatu, which is a milder form of UMNO, imagine how it would be like with the real thing. And of course we all know what happened the last time they tried to collaborate with PAS.

According to press reports, Dr M was actually toying with the idea of a unity government -- but not involving UMNO and PAS as parties. Rather, he was considering inviting certain "acceptable" individuals from UMNO and PAS to join him in a unity government. This was roundly rejected by UMNO and PAS, which now have rescinded their support for Dr M to become PM.

The sooner Dr M forgets about this idea of a unity government, the better. It is far and away the absolute worst option of all. Snap polls is not quite as bad but why should he do this if he can cobble together a minority government (which he likely can do)?

There is one potential benefit to having a snap election though, which is that it would be an opportunity to wipe out BN and PAS. But there are risks involved too. What if BN and PAS makes gains (unlikely as that may be)? It's probably better not to take that risk and instead form a minority government. This will buy you time to implement policies (i.e. fulfilling the PH manifesto) that will win public support.

Let's have a look at the numbers. What's left of PH + Warisan and UPKO = 102 MPs. He needs another 10. He could easily get that from Bersatu even though they are now outside of PH (technically Warisan is outside of PH too). Logically speaking, he should be able to get all 26 from Bersatu. That would make up 128, a comfortable majority (he doesn't even have to look to Sarawak's GPS for support).

But a minority government isn't without its problems. Yes, he could probably get the numbers he needs to do this, with Warisan/UPKO and Bersatu's support. But what will happen to that support once a transition to Anwar takes place? Much, if not all, of it might suddenly dissipate. Then we're back to where we are right now: the collapse of the government.

The long term solution for PH is for PKR, DAP and Amanah to do sufficiently well in GE15 that they have enough seats to form a government without Warisan and without Bersatu. To do that, it has to field candidates in constituencies that these two parties will be contesting in.

If Warisan and Bersatu are unwilling to support an Anwar-led government anyway, there is no problem contesting against them. They would not be considered allies or even friendly parties in such a situation. So, contest against them and trounce them.

What this does mean though is that Anwar probably will not get the chance to become PM until after GE15. This naturally begs the question: Is this what Dr M wanted all along?

If one wants to be cynical, one could view this whole episode as a Machiavellian plot to thwart Anwar. But if one wants to be charitable, one could accept the narrative that this all happened because he wanted to keep his promise.

If Dr M is sincere about keeping his promise, the first thing he should do if he becomes the 8th PM is to appoint Anwar deputy prime minister. This would be a clear signal to everyone -- but notably to Warisan and Bersatu -- that he is totally and absolutely committed to the transition happening.

Dr M could then identify MPs within Warisan and Bersatu who are not so dead set against Anwar becoming PM and get buy-in from them. He could do that. But will he?

Seems like quite a stretch to expect him to do so. But according to what we are hearing from the likes of his communications czar Kadir Jasin, he quit as PM and Bersatu chairman precisely because his lieutenants in Bersatu were trying to force him to renege on his promise to hand over the reigns to Anwar. That was the reason cited!

If this narrative is to be believed, then by right he should do all that he can to make it possible for Anwar to take over, perhaps after APEC, and become PM for about two years before heading into GE15. This would give Anwar and PH the momentum to win convincingly.

The alternative is for him to carry on as PM for the full term. But to what end? Surely he does not want chaos to reign supreme upon his retirement. But that's exactly what will happen if he doesn't set in motion a succession plan for Anwar, something only he is uniquely qualified to do.