The straw that broke the camel's back

Pakatan Harapan's parties finally said enough is enough to Mahathir and withdrew their support for him to become PM once again. They nominated Anwar instead. Whether they will be able to get enough MPs to form a majority in parliament is yet to be seen (officially they have 92 and 112 is needed). But one thing is for sure, they have finally ditched Dr M.

This was a long time coming. For the past 22 months or so, all the PH leaders had been walking on eggshells, careful not to upset Dr M lest he goes for the "nuclear option" and blows up the coalition.

This was the thing they feared most. So they kowtowed to him and let him have his way on most things. Their thinking was that since Dr M had promised to be interim PM for two years, they could bite their lips and kowtow to him until the transition happens. Better not rock the boat.

That proved to be a disastrous policy. Appeasement never results in good behavior. It makes the other party think you are a pushover and actually encourages bad behavior. But ever fearful of Dr M's potential use of the nuclear option, they decided appeasement would be their policy.

What if he refuses to relinquish the post after two years? "We'll cross that bridge when we get there" seemed to be their answer to that.

So, they kowtowed and waited and kowtowed and waited and kowtowed and waited, hoping that Dr M will eventually reward them by keeping to his promise.

Even though it was perfectly reasonable, and totally logical, for them to expect Dr M to set a transition date, they ended up agreeing to letting him be the one to decide when he should step down.

Yet, despite this remarkable concession Bersatu leaders and Azmin pushed ahead with their plan to set up a backdoor coalition government involving UMNO, PAS, GPS and Warisan. In doing so, they caused the PH government to collapse.

Dr M's resignation as PM and Bersatu chairman took everyone (including Muhyiddin and Azmin) by surprise. Why did he do so? According to his communications czar, Kadir Jasin, it was because he didn't want to be forced to renege on his promise to Anwar.

Really? Really?! Really?!?

Sounds incredible but the top leaders of PH decided to give him the benefit of the doubt and actually decided to support him to be the 8th PM of this country.

Since they decided to take him at his word, it was perfectly reasonable for PH leaders to expect Dr M to help repair the damage that his party, Bersatu, and his blue eyed boy, Azmin, had wrought.

So, they invited him to attend their presidential council meeting to discuss ways to rebuild the coalition. He declined to be a part of that. Instead, he wanted to do his own thing which was to form a unity government consisting of people across the political spectrum.

This is a terrible idea for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, such a government would have a Cabinet chosen by Dr M alone without any input of consultation with other parties. Secondly, such a government is almost certain to include the very people who caused the downfall of the PH government, as well as some leaders from UMNO and PAS. Thirdly, everybody in this government would be beholden to Dr M. You can forget about any transition of power to Anwar.

It's clear that this was designed for him to be the PM for the full term. So much for Kadir Jasin's spin about him wanting to keep his promise to Anwar.

His decision to forge a unity government instead of helping to rebuild the PH government was the tipping point that made the PH leaders finally give up on him.

It was a long time coming but they were no longer under any illusions about Dr M's intentions. So, they pulled the rug underneath him and launched their own game plan.

No more kowtowing to Dr M in the hopes that he would keep his promise. No more walking on eggshells. No more appeasement. Instead, they would nominate Anwar to become the 8th PM. But can they get the numbers? It won't be easy but it's doable.

What about Dr M? Can he get the numbers now that he has lost PH's support (that's a whopping 92 seats gone)? If you do the math, you will see there is no conceivable configuration that would give Dr M the majority he needs to become PM.

He currently has a maximum of 64 seats in his favour (26 from Bersatu, 11 from Azmin's gang, 18 from GPS and 9 from Warisan). He will need another 48 from somewhere else.

What about going back to UMNO and PAS, as unpalatable as that may be to him? If he's desperate enough, this is something he could try to do. But can it be done?

They say politics is the art of the impossible. But this is pretty impossible. UMNO and PAS had already seen the King and said they no longer supported Dr M to be PM. Dr M, himself, had gone on television and said he would never work with UMNO.

Imagine if they all did an about face and approached the King again. You could easily imagine him saying, "Wait a minute, UMNO and PAS, didn't you just tell me you had rejected Dr M? And Dr M, didn't you just go on TV and tell the whole nation you would never work with UMNO?"

Ultimately, what happened was Dr M overplayed his hand with PH, which he had taken for granted all this while. He probably knew that UMNO and PAS's support was never solid. But he never expected PH to ditch him.

After all, these were the same guys who kowtowed to him for 22 months and who agreed to let him decide when to step down. These were the same guys who immediately pledged to support him as PM despite the fact that it was his people who caused the government to collapsed. But his decision to decline helping them to rebuild the PH government was the straw that broke the camel's back.

Had he agreed to attend the PH meeting and use his clout with Bersatu, GPS and Warisan, to get a simple majority to reform the PH government, he would have become Malaysia's 8th PM. He could have then used the rest of this year to attend to whatever unfinished business he has, do the APEC thing, and retire a hero. Instead, he scored the biggest own goal of his political career.